(Dan Tri) – The Institute for War Studies believes that Russia has regained the initiative on the entire battlefield and can launch attacks whenever and wherever it wants as long as it maintains a winning position.
Ukrainian soldiers at the front (Illustration photo: Skynews).
Russia regained the strategic initiative on the entire front
Ukrainska Pravda reported that the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) published its latest report on February 27, saying military analysts noted that Ukrainian President Vlodymyr Zelensky said Russia
Mr. Zelensky also said that the Ukrainian army has a clear plan to fight the Russian army.
ISW continues to assess that Russian forces have regained the initiative across the battlefield following Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the summer of 2023 and that Russia has the ability to determine the time, location and scale of the operations.
If Ukraine conducts active defense across the entire battlefield by 2024, it will cede the strategic initiative to Russia.
Russian forces will be able to mobilize reserve concentrations and determine how and where to allocate resources, forcing Ukraine to act defensively as long as Russia maintains the strategic initiative.
Ukrainian forces can forestall these developments if they have the capacity to challenge Russia’s offensive campaign and launch their own counter-offensives by 2024.
Ukraine war map as of February 26.
Ukraine will not allow Russia to `take an easy walk` in Chasov Yar
Currently, the hottest fronts are Avdiivka, Bakhmut – Chasov Yar, Marinka and Rabotine.
If at Avdiivka, the Russian army continued to win and accelerated the pursuit of the retreating enemy, then at Chasov Yar they were having difficulty facing extremely fierce resistance from Ukrainian forces.
Once this fortress was taken down, Moscow’s forces had the opportunity to advance further west.
Interfax-Ukraine reported that the head of the press service of the Khortitsa strategic and operational group of the Ukrainian army Ilya Yevlash said on February 26 that, near the city of Chasov Yar west of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region, Kiev forces
`Engineering work has also been carried out at Chasov Yar, the enemy is quite close to this settlement,` Mr. Yevlash said. However, the engineering fortifications there will not allow Russian troops to `walk on foot.`
Mr. Yevlash also noted that Russia is using different shock groups, trying to attack `both frontally and along the flanks` near the villages of Ivanovskoye in the south and Bogdanovka in the north of Chasov Yar.
War map of Ukraine in the direction of Bakhmut – Chasov Yar – Sloviansk – Kramatorsk as of February 24.
`The last attack was like this, they used special vehicles, because the ground there now is quite soft, so to speak. And of course, it was very difficult to get there on foot,` he said.
In addition, according to Mr. Yevlash, in the direction of Kupyansk `the construction of quite solid fortifications began last fall`.
He affirmed: `Currently, the construction of fortifications in this direction continues: in addition, there are also concrete structures that are long-term defense points, besides, dozens of military defense works have been built.
According to the Rybar channel, Russia’s main efforts are focused on gaining operational space to break into the Ukrainian fortified area in Chasov Yar.
However, a direct attack on Chasov Yar – a city located at a high altitude with a defensive advantage – is a difficult task, will be very strenuous, and could cause Russia to suffer great losses when capturing the surrounding areas.
Therefore, most likely, Moscow forces will bypass the fortified area to advance in a circular route to encircle the city like the tactic they successfully implemented in Avdiivka.
