(Dan Tri) – From receiving little attention during the Ukraine conflict, the Black Sea has recently suddenly become a military and geopolitical hot spot.
Russian soldiers during a parade to celebrate Navy Day in July at the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk (Photo: AFP).
Russian warships patrol the Black Sea surface, launching missiles at Ukrainian targets.
Above, NATO aircraft and reconnaissance UAVs hovered in international waters to gather intelligence, and Russian aircraft also appeared in the sky.
With a location adjacent to Ukraine, Russia and three NATO countries, the Black Sea has become more tense since the grain initiative sponsored by the United Nations and Türkiye was suspended in July.
`The Black Sea is currently a conflict zone, as significant to NATO as western Ukraine,` Mr. Ivo Daalder, former US Ambassador to NATO, assessed.
Competition in the Black Sea could impact global energy markets and world food supplies.
Competition for control
For centuries, the Black Sea has been important to Russia.
For years, Moscow has sought to increase its influence around the Black Sea, through the development of seaports and resort cities, and amassing forces at naval bases in the region for its southern fleet.
The Black Sea has an important position with neighboring countries (Graphic: New York Times).
The Black Sea is equally important to NATO.
Since launching the `special military operation`, Moscow has controlled three major ports of Ukraine and tightened the passage of ships.
Although NATO expressed its desire to avoid direct confrontation with Russia, the risk of out-of-control incidents has increased in recent times.
NATO and its member countries often conduct air patrols over NATO territory, territorial waters and international waters of the Black Sea.
But in March, a Russian fighter collided with a US reconnaissance drone (UAV), causing the UAV to fall into international waters.
Faced with this situation, the United Nations on July 21 warned of increased tension in the Black Sea after Russia withdrew from the grain agreement and raided several important Ukrainian ports.
`We are seeing a major impact on global food security, as Russia raids Ukraine’s Black Sea ports for four consecutive days,` said UN official in charge of political affairs, Rosemary DiCarlo.
Satellite images show Russian warships damaged near Novorossiysk port on August 4 (Photo: AP).
Even some NATO countries are concerned.
`Türkiye is very opposed to NATO missions in the Black Sea because they see that increasing NATO’s presence here will increase the risk of conflict with Russia,` Mr. Ulgen said.
Surprise from Ukraine
For months before that, Ukraine had been reluctant to respond to Russia’s ability to control the Black Sea, but Kiev continued to develop the means to challenge Russia’s much more powerful navy.
In October, Ukraine used unmanned boats to attack the Russian naval fleet.
`We must defend our coast starting from the enemy’s coast,` Ukraine’s naval commander, Rear Admiral Oleksiy Neizhpapa, said in May, when he called for a stronger response in the region.
P.W.
He said that in less than a year, unmanned boats have improved, are larger, faster, operate more discreetly and can carry more explosives.
Russian fighter collides with US UAV above the Black Sea (Photo: Nikolay Nikolov).
Manufacturers of unmanned boats say they are designed for a variety of missions, from surveillance to combat.
These boats can travel at speeds of about 48 miles per hour with a range of up to 450 nautical miles.
Mr. Singer said that Ukraine’s rapid progress in creating unmanned boats is similar to the pace in Silicon Valley.
Meanwhile, Russian officials affirmed that the country has all the military and technical capabilities to fight threats in the Black Sea.
`It is important that we have all military and military-technical capabilities to prevent this situation without affecting the security interests of the country, the security of our people and our facilities.`
Economic impact
The outbreak of the Ukraine conflict has raised concerns that rising oil prices could shock the global economy.
More than 3% of global oil and oil products move through the Black Sea.
Russian oil tanker docked at Novorossiysk in 2022 (Photo: AP).
Ukrainian officials have expressed hope that by expanding the conflict to Russian ports, they can inflict some economic damage on Moscow.
After major international oil traders and companies refused to sell Russian oil, newly established trading and shipping companies based in the United Arab Emirates, Greece and Hong Kong
David Goldwyn, a former US State Department official responsible for energy, said oil prices could increase by 10-15 USD/barrel if Russian exports from the Black Sea disappeared.
Oil is trading at around $85 a barrel and has remained steady even after Ukraine attacked a Russian tanker over the weekend.
Sarah Emerson, president of the consulting firm Energy Security Analysis, said the question now is whether `Ukraine can do this again.` It would make already tight energy markets even tighter.
