The West struggles to `decode` President Putin’s intentions

The West struggles to `decode` President Putin's intentions 0

(Dan Tri) – Although they are imposing unprecedented sanctions on Russia, Western leaders still have a big question: Are such strong measures enough to deter Russia?

Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed a very determined stance when launching a military campaign in Ukraine (Photo: AFP).

According to AP, political observers say that, although the West has recently imposed sanctions at an unprecedented speed and force on Russia, the leaders of these countries still seem to be wondering.

Within just a few days after Russia launched its military campaign in Ukraine on February 24, the West launched a series of measures to put pressure on Russia.

The Kremlin also publicly admitted that the Russian economy suffered a `shock`, but Russian President Vladimir Putin believes that Moscow will soon emerge stronger and stronger.

Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on March 10 that Russia will strive to abandon dependence on the West in areas important to its people and find its own ways to overcome problems in the economy.

The resolute stance of Russia as well as Mr. Putin in the face of mounting pressure makes Western leaders ask what more they need to do to make Russia `falter` or change its mind to stop the fighting.

Experts say that no one knows clearly what President Putin is planning and the West cannot know for sure whether their sanctions will change Putin’s determination or not.

Professor of international politics at Dartmouth College (USA), William Wohlforth said that the root cause of Russia’s assertiveness is because it wants to create a new balance in the post-Cold War global order.

According to AP, observers say that, although NATO officials do not admit it publicly, it seems they have not seen President Putin’s `limiting point` – referring to factors that, when influenced, can

US President Joe Biden once declared: `Ukraine will never be a victory for Mr. Putin`, but experts say that Ukraine may not be a defeat for Russia either.

US Deputy Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland said earlier this week that pressure from within Russia may be more effective on Mr. Putin than pressure from outside.

In fact, observers say that despite the West’s military support for Ukraine, the gap between Kiev and Moscow is very significant.

In addition, diplomatic solutions have not yet shown positive results.

`No one knows when the war will end. Until the Russians are ready to negotiate, it is difficult for the parties to do anything more,` commented Jeff Rathke, a European expert at Johns Hopkins University (USA).

He recommended that the US and Europe need to find a solution to negotiate with Russia because the sanctions imposed by the West on Russia are also hurting themselves.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also acknowledged certain Western limits in pressuring Russia to stop the war.

A test for Russia’s economic `fortress`.

US and European sanctions are having a serious impact on the Russian economy.

The Russian government’s extensive involvement in the economy, as well as the money it still makes from oil and gas exports – even with a ban from the US along with the UK – should help soften the blow of the ban

Russians will feel the pressure of sanctions as the ruble depreciates and inflation begins to soar.

Experts assess that Russia has built an economic `fortress` for nearly 8 years after relations with the West deteriorated due to the annexation of the Crimea peninsula in 2014. This `fortress` will help Russia fight

However, although trade activities decline and goods become less diverse, the fall in value of the ruble will help Russia earn more money from oil, because this commodity is sold in USD.

While the US and UK announced they would ban oil imported from Russia, Europe – which depends on Moscow’s supply – appeared hesitant about this option.

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